Villager Population far higher than bed count.
The population will suddenly jump. It seems to be related to placing/removing beds. The bed count does not seem to be accurate.
It's affecting Golems too
After some testing on another world, I believe it may be related to very large villages that extend beyond the simulation distance. I was able to reproduce on a test world by creating a large village with many villagers, removing beds and then reducing villager population by killing them with pillagers. The villagers went on to reproduce to a population roughly 1.5x the number of beds.
I created a second test village to try to reproduce again and was again able to get more villagers than beds. I have 10 beds and 11 villagers. First create 2 separate villages far enough apart that they are considered separate villages and outside the simulation distance of the other. Then add beds between the villages to create a third village that combines the first two. I've provided new pictures of this new test village.
The golems in the test village are self spawned.