Starting the launcher offers login to my Microsoft account, this succeeds and on the main launcher page now shows my correct gamertag in the top left - however the profile picture is missing.

My gamertag is "nicknotfun"

Further, it continually alternates between offline and "Oh no! Something went wrong, and we couldn't connect to the Minecraft services.". The main call to action button also alternates from Play Offline to Play Demo

The relevant portion of the launcher_log [full log is attached] I suspect is:

{{[Warning: 2022-12-14 15:14:12.3258791: UserIdentity.cpp(349)] No user logged in
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:12.3259093: UserIdentity.cpp(154)] Starting interactive sign in
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.3164394: XalPlatform_gamecore.cpp(76)] Store State : Match - Account detected
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.3165776: UserIdentity.cpp(220)] Sign-in success - cleared token
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.3166671: UserIdentity.cpp(261)] Attempting interactive sign-in: [was-signed-in:false][signed-out:false][signed-in:true][0]
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.3167951: UserIdentity.cpp(893)] Retrieving token due to [first]
[Warning: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.5674910: UserIdentity.cpp(620)] Failed to get token [-2015559639], clearing token
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.5675490: UserIdentity.cpp(897)] Attempted to retrieved token - [normal] - [null] - -2015559639
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.5675688: UserIdentity.cpp(948)] Token not used due to [null][error:-2015559639]
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.5675831: UserIdentity.cpp(962)] Current token [with-refresh:true] - [null]
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.5676013: UnifiedMSAAccounts.cpp(350)] Added/Updated account : No Token
[Info: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.5676202: UserIdentity.cpp(496)] Got gamer tag - [0][not empty]
[Warning: 2022-12-14 15:14:20.8183209: UserIdentity.cpp(446)] Failed to get gamerpic. XAL status: -2015559639}}

If I restart the launcher, subsequent loads do show me my account to select to login- however without profile picture or gamertag. After clicking through I end up in the same state as above.

Connectivity is fine, others games/apps work - have installed all updates to all applications that are available, as well as deleted Minecraft (including wiping the .minecraft folder entirely).