Expected:

1. Open Minecraft Launcher
2. Enter credentials
3. Logged in ready to play,
4. OR if unable to connect, allow to play offline

Actual:

1. Open Minecraft Launcher
2. Enter credentials
3. Error message "Could not connect to server." and unable to play offline

Step 3 (actual) happens, for me, on averageg 40% of the time when using VPNs. Switching VPN connection usually resolves this (multiple VPN switches in some cases).

P.s.

Similar to MCL-5665 but unresolved and unable to even play offline.